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Summary

17 COVER STORIES
SCENARIOS FOR VIETNAM

AFTER RUSSIA-UKRAINE

At the “Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Reducing the Impact and
Seeking Opportunities” seminar held by a / b,
experts and analysts said that in challenges there is always
opportunity and Vietnam needs to have an overall strategy
to deal with the situation. Russia will certainly be limited
in the Western market and to some degree in the Asian
11 COVER STORIES market, including in Vietnam, so it is necessary to make
GROWTH: MANY UNKNOWNS good use of any opportunities. Analysts identified four
issues that businesses need to consider in responding to
FROM RUSSIA-UKRAINE the crisis. On the side of the Party, State, National
Assembly, and government, in the short term, ministries
and localities need to step in more significantly to support
In assessing the stock market outlook in 2022, FiinGroup has businesses, especially in diversifying markets. In the
used three main groups of factors: external factors (the macro- medium and long term, it is necessary to restructure and
economic environment, such as interest rates and inflation); upgrade the country’s logistics system, and accelerate
growth prospects of businesses; and valuation levels in the institutional reform and the reform of the business and
market compared to the profit growth prospects of businesses. investment environment.
Its analysts noted that supply and demand of stocks, In the
week since Russia launched a military attack on Ukraine, mass
sanctions imposed by the West against Moscow have caused
the Russian economy to wobble and the global economy to be
affected. When Russia’s economy wobbles, the world wobbles
too, because Russia is the world’s leading energy exporter. 10 ECONOMY - POLICY
Global inflationary pressures are increasing along with
escalations in the prices of basic commodities, especially crude CAUTION NEEDED WITH INFLATION
oil, putting central banks in a difficult position amid the
slowing down of economic recovery. A major concern of global The CPI will be lower in 2022 than the target of about
investors at the moment is the risk of “stagflation” - a situation 4 per cent set under a Resolution from the National
where rising inflation combines with stagnant economic Assembly. Such subjective thinking comes from a
output, causing economies to “bog down” and employment to number of different angles. Vietnam is, in fact, facing
shrink. both primary and secondary, will affect the market inflationary risk. The factors affecting inflation
outlook. The general outlook on profit growth of listed include demand - supply, cost - push, currency -
companies is still quite positive, and this will be the
fundamental driver supporting the market during the year. credit, psychology, and external factors and recent
developments over the past two months. In particular,
the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will affect many
22 COVER STORIES countries, including Vietnam.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
REQUIRES PROACTIVE RESPONSE

Figures from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)
show that Russia and Ukraine are both traditional and
important trading partners of Vietnam in the Eurasian
region. Vietnam will be significantly affected by the conflict
between the two, in terms of production, trade, inflation,
supply and demand, transport, goods distribution, and
commercial contract payments. Minister of Industry and
Trade Nguyen Hong Dien has directed ministry units to
proactively and promptly grasp the situation and propose
management measures to the ministry and the
government. He also emphasized that businesses need to
make the most of incentives in the 15 free trade agreements
Vietnam has signed and to diversify markets.

4 Kinh tế Việt nam | Số 11 | ngày 14/3/2022 www.vneconomy.vn